Friday, April 27, 2007

Polls and poles

Great article in the New Statesman on John Marek's bid to keep his Wrexham seat. John seems to have been very relaxed about the camapign to date and perhaps this explains why.

Talking of polls instead of poles, there has been an interesting reaction by various commentators to the 'polls' published this week.

Having knocked on thousands of doors during the last few weeks, we have one of the most accurate surveys of what is going on in this constituency, which I would love to share with you but am under pain of death if I did. All I can say is that it does not reflect the national picture.

Indeed, in a close three way tie and in a diverse constituency, that would expected, especially as the polls conducted would only have asked around 25 people in Aberconwy for those views. Now if those 25 people had been in Penrhyn bay, we would have 60% of the vote, if they has been in Llandudno Junction, Labour would have 60% of the vote and if they had been in Llanrwst, Plaid Cymru would have 60% of the vote. I think you get the picture!

The only poll that matters is on May 3rd and I am really looking forward to it (and some sleep after!)


Blamerbell said...

I take your point about the difficulty of predicting seats such as your dear Aberconwy. But does it not concern you that two polls conducted in very different ways came up with similar results?

Jonny said...

surely you would help yourselves if you used a local printing firm to publish your promotional literature that came through my letterbox recently? (particularly if said literature claims to support local business!). Plaid's Gareth Jones sensibly used a printing firm based in Llanrwst, seems that you have "shot from the hip" in using a Swansea based printing firm.